2008 Padres Bullpen

As far as i can tell this is what we've got.

Padres in the Bullpen Mix
-Guevara, Carlos RHP (Unproven)
-Zarate, Mauro RHP (Unproven)
-Cameron, Kevin RHP (Moderate Talent)
-Hampson, Justin LHP (Moderate Talent)
-Frieri, Ernesto RHP (Unproven)
-Gardner, Michael RHP (Unproven)
-Germano, Justin RHP (Below Avg. Talent)
-Hensley, Clay RHP (Moderate Talent, Injured)
-Ledezma, Wil LHP (Below Avg. Talent)
-Lopez, Wilton RHP (Unproven)
-Meredith, Cla RHP (Moderate Talent)
-Stauffer, Tim RHP (Below Avg. Talent)
-Thatcher, Joe LHP (Moderate Talent)
-Wells, Jared RHP (Below Avg. Talent)

-Bell, Heath RHP (Elite Talent)
-Hoffman, Trevor RHP (Elite Veteran)

So as far as i can tell, there are 16 bullpen arms fighting for 12-13 spots on the Major League Roster.

5 Spots are Occupied by Peavy, Wolf, Young, Maddux & 1 of estes/rusch/germano for the 5th spot.

2 Spots are obviously already occupied by Hoffman & Bell. It's also safe to say Meredith & Thatcher are locks for the pen.

From what i know is that Lopez, Zarate and Frieri must stay on our roster all year long or the Padres risk putting them on waivers. Same goes for Guevara(I'm pretty sure) & Gardner who would have to be offered back to their former teams( Marlins & Yankees respectively) if they were optioned to the minors. THAT'S 15!

so by my count that's 12 spots covered and 3 over the norm which leaves no spots for these guys
3 of Gardner/Zarate/Frieri/Lopez/Guevara would go home or back to their old teams.
-Wells RHP
-Stauffer RHP
-Hampson RHP
-Germano/Rusch/Estes RHP/LHP/LHP (2 go home or to AAA)
-Ledezma LHP
-Hensley RHP
-Cameron, K RHP

Safe to say that Stauffer and Wells will have a tough time even sniffing the major leagues after their seasons last year(Stauffer was much worse than Wells).

I'd say as of right this very moment Germano has a better chance of keeping the 5th starter job warm over Hensley, Rusch & Estes just based on age and health and nothing more(Hensley is fresh off shoulder surgery, elbow for Estes, and rusch had a blood clot).

Ledezma was offered Arbitration and has no options left from what i have read. so I'm curious how he fits in but i believe talent wise hes the most expendable.

Cameron would be harder to swallow if lost. He has options and is a good bet to hit AAA no matter how good he pitches in the Spring.

I think the Rule 5 Guys/Waiver Pick Ups will all come down to the nitty gritty in Spring Training. No telling how that will go.

If i was a betting man I'd say that IF Hampson doesn't make the ML team he could easily be traded as a pretty good left handed talent. Same for Thatcher. If Thatcher still has Minor League Options left than we keep Hampson and Thatcher goes to AAA.

Hensley is practically a non-factor since he hasn't even resumed throwing after shoulder surgery.

Recap so Far- 12 Spots
1. Peavy
2. Young
3. Wolf
4. Maddux
5. Germano/Hensley/Estes/Rusch(Until M. Prior steps in)
6. Hoffman
7. Bell
8. Meredith
9. Thatcher/Hampson
Up For Grabs
10. Zarate/Frieri/Lopez
11. Gardner/Guevara/Cameron, K
12. any of the above 6

to AAA
Hensley(Injured)
Estes(Long shot to make it, can become FA)
Rusch(Another Long shot, can become FA)
Wells(Bad '07)
Stauffer(Horrible '07)
Ledezma(Bad '07)

That's my take on the bullpen so far today.

this may be rambling, but i was bored at work and thought it was a pretty good situation to have so many good, live arms competing to make our Padres squad.

Not the worst problem to have I'd think.

Ian