2008 Padres Bullpen

2007-12-28T14:34:00.001-08:00

As far as i can tell this is what we've got.

Padres in the Bullpen Mix
-Guevara, Carlos RHP (Unproven)
-Zarate, Mauro RHP (Unproven)
-Cameron, Kevin RHP (Moderate Talent)
-Hampson, Justin LHP (Moderate Talent)
-Frieri, Ernesto RHP (Unproven)
-Gardner, Michael RHP (Unproven)
-Germano, Justin RHP (Below Avg. Talent)
-Hensley, Clay RHP (Moderate Talent, Injured)
-Ledezma, Wil LHP (Below Avg. Talent)
-Lopez, Wilton RHP (Unproven)
-Meredith, Cla RHP (Moderate Talent)
-Stauffer, Tim RHP (Below Avg. Talent)
-Thatcher, Joe LHP (Moderate Talent)
-Wells, Jared RHP (Below Avg. Talent)

-Bell, Heath RHP (Elite Talent)
-Hoffman, Trevor RHP (Elite Veteran)

So as far as i can tell, there are 16 bullpen arms fighting for 12-13 spots on the Major League Roster.

5 Spots are Occupied by Peavy, Wolf, Young, Maddux & 1 of estes/rusch/germano for the 5th spot.

2 Spots are obviously already occupied by Hoffman & Bell. It's also safe to say Meredith & Thatcher are locks for the pen.

From what i know is that Lopez, Zarate and Frieri must stay on our roster all year long or the Padres risk putting them on waivers. Same goes for Guevara(I'm pretty sure) & Gardner who would have to be offered back to their former teams( Marlins & Yankees respectively) if they were optioned to the minors. THAT'S 15!

so by my count that's 12 spots covered and 3 over the norm which leaves no spots for these guys
3 of Gardner/Zarate/Frieri/Lopez/Guevara would go home or back to their old teams.
-Wells RHP
-Stauffer RHP
-Hampson RHP
-Germano/Rusch/Estes RHP/LHP/LHP (2 go home or to AAA)
-Ledezma LHP
-Hensley RHP
-Cameron, K RHP

Safe to say that Stauffer and Wells will have a tough time even sniffing the major leagues after their seasons last year(Stauffer was much worse than Wells).

I'd say as of right this very moment Germano has a better chance of keeping the 5th starter job warm over Hensley, Rusch & Estes just based on age and health and nothing more(Hensley is fresh off shoulder surgery, elbow for Estes, and rusch had a blood clot).

Ledezma was offered Arbitration and has no options left from what i have read. so I'm curious how he fits in but i believe talent wise hes the most expendable.

Cameron would be harder to swallow if lost. He has options and is a good bet to hit AAA no matter how good he pitches in the Spring.

I think the Rule 5 Guys/Waiver Pick Ups will all come down to the nitty gritty in Spring Training. No telling how that will go.

If i was a betting man I'd say that IF Hampson doesn't make the ML team he could easily be traded as a pretty good left handed talent. Same for Thatcher. If Thatcher still has Minor League Options left than we keep Hampson and Thatcher goes to AAA.

Hensley is practically a non-factor since he hasn't even resumed throwing after shoulder surgery.

Recap so Far- 12 Spots
1. Peavy
2. Young
3. Wolf
4. Maddux
5. Germano/Hensley/Estes/Rusch(Until M. Prior steps in)
6. Hoffman
7. Bell
8. Meredith
9. Thatcher/Hampson
Up For Grabs
10. Zarate/Frieri/Lopez
11. Gardner/Guevara/Cameron, K
12. any of the above 6

to AAA
Hensley(Injured)
Estes(Long shot to make it, can become FA)
Rusch(Another Long shot, can become FA)
Wells(Bad '07)
Stauffer(Horrible '07)
Ledezma(Bad '07)

That's my take on the bullpen so far today.

this may be rambling, but i was bored at work and thought it was a pretty good situation to have so many good, live arms competing to make our Padres squad.

Not the worst problem to have I'd think.

Ian

Winter Break Transaction Analysis

2007-12-28T12:31:00.000-08:00

December 23rd-December 28th in Baseball

Taguchi, So- OF
-Signed 1 Year Deal Near $1M with Phillies
*In all honesty i find it hard to believe that Taguchi will contribute to an offensive minded Phillies squad with any more than just his glove. There were some other decent options for a righty off the bench out in the FA pool, even oft injured Phils OF Chris Snelling was looking at some playing time. He'll likely start the year in AAA after the more defensive minded Taguchi assumes his spot. (From Cardinals)

Castillo, Jose- INF
-Signed 1 Year Deal with Marlins
*The freshly jettisoned Castillo will battle it out with other fellow Marlins youngsters to assume the 3B or 2B(if they move Uggla over) hole(s). Castillo has some potential...but hes no Luis Castillo offensively or defensively for that matter. I'd say he's worth a look. (From Pirates)

Prior, Mark- RHSP
-Signed 1 Year Deal + Incentives 11th Padres
*As a HUGE Padres fan, i initially was weary of this move. After some consideration and discovering that he is only guaranteed 1M i realized its actually a pretty bold move by Kevin Towers. If Prior falls backward and flames out horribly, then you write off the 1M as a minor investment in a former star(lets face it hes a better option than Rusch or Estes). If he doesn't flame out, but somehow prospers then the only concern you will have is if he'll be back for 2009. (From Cubs)

Hawkins, LaTroy- RHRP
-Signed 1 Year Deal 3.75M with Yankees
*This was previously reported and just now made official. (From Rockies)

Olivo, Miguel- C
-Signed 1 Year Deal with Royals
*Olivo travels to KC to assume backup duties for unpolished Travis Buck who will no doubt continue to pick up most of the AB's for the Royals. It should be noted that Olivo remains a great defender and throws out plenty of base runners. He also has pretty decent pop. (From Marlins)

Erstad, Darin- OF/1B
-Signed 1 Year Deal 1M with Astros
*Erstad will assume one of Houston's final bench spots and is a decent signing for only 1M. He doesn't excite as much anymore and he's basically a non-factor offensively, but he still brings those gold gloves he earned in both INF & OF positions. He is basically replacing Orlando Palmeiro's left handed bat. If he stays healthy he could be a tad bit better than the sub 700 OPS+ mark he posted in the superior American League. (From White Sox)

Villarreal, Oscar- RHRP
-Signed 2 Year Deal 2.85M with Astros
*Oscar gave up just BARELY under 1 hit per inning. With that many people on base its a hard sell that he'll be a huge contributor to this years Astros squad. At least he still strikes out more foes than he walks. He had a 4.24 ERA in 76.1 Innings in '07. (From Braves)

Ian

Id Like to give a special thanks to Ducksnorts Blog & Geoff Young for the inspiration to start my own Baseball/Padres blog.

Sidearm Delivery Baseball Analysis

2008 Padres Bullpen

Winter Break Transaction Analysis